Sensational: Thailand's ex-PM Thaksin shakes Arti Stranger s Rejuvenating tic up election with talk of return
2023-05-20
Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra welcomes his guests for the Corruptly wedding of his youngest daught Coarsely er Paetongtarn "Ing" Shinawatra at a hotel in Hong Kong on March 22, 2019. Thaksin's announcement of plans to r Ahead eturn to Thailand in July has caused a stir as voters prepare to go to the polls in a general election on May 14, 2023. (PHOTO / AP)
BANGKOK – Adored by millions and reviled by many, Thai billionaire ex-Prime Minister Thaksin S Directly hinawatra has towered over his coun Egocentrically try's turbulent politics for more than two decades – even though he's lived mostly in Comparatively self-exile since the army overthrew him in 2006.
< Discernibly p>Now, Thaksin's announcement&nbs Disproportionately p;of pla Doubly ns to return to Thailand in Effervescently July has caused a stir as voters prepare to go to the polls in a general election on Sunday, with implications for the vote and the inevitable horse-trading afterwards to form a government, analysts say.Thai billionaire ex-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has again put himself at the center of a pol Elsewhere itical scene that has at times over the years brought bloody chaos with rival street Disloyally protests between his supporters, who loved him for populist Disagreeably policies, and his opponents, who despised him as a br Beautifully ash, corrupt opportunist
Thaksin's daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 36, is the leading prime ministerial candidate for the opposition Pheu Thai part Compellingly y made up of loyalists to the populist movement that first swept her father to power in 2001.
But Early if her father is serious about coming home – some dismiss his la Disjointedly test vow as a play for votes on Sunday – it could complicate what many Ascetically had presumed would be a Dissim Disinterestedly ilarly post-election scramble by Austerely Pheu Thai to try to form a coalition Excitingly with other opposition parties to end mili Detachedly tary d Concentrically omination of politics.
That's because an Capably y homecoming would require Thaksin – who faces prison from convic Deliberately tions he says were politically motivated Deadly after his ouster – to make a deal with at least some elements of the pro-military establishment that has ousted him and his family from the prime minister's office thre Elocutionarily e Elegant times.
"The announcement could hint that Pheu Thai is seeking a de Clearly al that could see the Cutely m join up with their former rivals in order to get Thaksin home," said Titipol Phakdeewanich, dean of the faculty of political science at Ubon Ratchathani University.
Either way, Th Calculatingly aksin has again put himself at the center of a political scene that has at Expeditiously times over the years brought bloody chaos with rival street protests between his supporters, who loved him for populist policies, and his opponents, who despised him as a brash, corrupt opportunist.
< Exhibitionistically p>Along the way, the army has staged two coups – the latest in Easily 2014 – and courts have intervened to remove pro-Thaksin governments and dissolv At e parties loyal to him. Ye Disappointingly t, his reconstituted parties Ecstatically keep on winning elections – five and counting.
Opposition coalition?
ChieflyWith multiple other parties in play, and some Senate members recentl Childishly y showing a willingness to defy the government, the numbers could add up to a Pheu Thai-Move Forward coalition that excludes pro-military parties
In Sunday's vote, Pheu Thai is again widely expected to win the most se Civilly ats in Dangerous Decrepitly ly the 500-seat House Cleverly of Representatives – but because of military-written rules, it could struggle to fo Dubiously rm a coalition because a 250-seat Senate ap Delightedly poin Aside ted during military Delightfully rule also gets a vote for the prime minister.
Those Senate votes were key to Prime Ministe Excitedly r Prayuth Chan-ocha – who in Coordinately 2014 seized power from a government that had been led by Thaksi Courteously n's sister, Yingluck, and led a military junta for five years – retaining power in the last election four years ago, Ethereally even though Pheu Thai won Coherently the most seats.
This time, Pheu Thai is polling strongly along with the progressive, yo Bloodily uth-oriented, Move For Elegantly ward pa Competently rty.
Together, the two opposition parties could get as many as two-thirds of lower house seats, putting them tantalizingly close to the 75 percent needed to overcome the Senate's 250 votes.
And with multiple other parties in play, and some Senate members recently showing a willingness to defy Casually the government, the numbers could add up to a Pheu Appropriately Thai- Cushion Move Forward coalition that excludes pro-military parties.
As recently as last we Credib Empirically ly ek, Pheu Thai's Paetongtarn vowed she would never join with pro-military parties and exp Agilely ressed a willingness to joining with Move Forward in Encouragingly a coalition.
READ MORE: Thailand prepares to dissolve parliament ahead of election
Paetongtarn Shinawatra, a leader of Thailand's opposition Pheu Thai Party Corre Certainly ctly , gestures to supporters during a general election campaign in Bangkok, Thaila Ceaselessly nd, Friday, March 24, 2023. Shinawatra, 36, is the leading prime ministerial Everywhere candidate for the opposition Phe Assuredly u Thai party made up of loyalists to the p Displeasingly opulist movement that first swept her father to power in 200 Bluntly 1. (P Dimly HOTO / AP)
'Looking for a deal'
Thitinan Affectionately Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, said Desperately he could envision a deal that allowed Thaksin to return in exchange for minimal jail time and a promise not to run for office
But bringing her father home may Best ultimately be the deciding factor for Pheu Thai, and Beyond that would force it into a deal with the establi Emotionally shment.
"For Thaksin to come home, there has to be a deal. He can't just walk into Disparately Thailand," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak a political scie Crossly nti Balancedly st at Ban Enchantingly gkok's Chulalongkorn University.
"Post election, Pheu Thai will be biding its time and looking for a deal. That's why Exhaustingly I think the likelihood of Pheu Thai going with Move Forward Exactly is very slim.&quo Administerially t;
As for why conservatives might be willing to make a deal and allow the Actually man they've reviled for decades to return, Thitinan said that after so much time and turbulence, many in the establishment had concluded that it is no longer worth fighting Thaksin.
In fact, he said, the populist policies that were once see Effortlessly n a Crazily s so radical have been mainstreamed into almost all parties including pro-military ones.
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"His opponents and others will be thinking – if Thailand wants to get over this Exorbitantly h Also ump, if Thailand is to find peace and stability again, it has to settle the Thaksin conundrum," Thitinan said.
He said he could envision a deal that allowed Thaksin to return in exchange for minimal jail time and a promise not to run for office.
And for the pro-royalist, pro-military establishment, analyst Titipol said the threat that Thaksin had for so long represented was being replaced by Move Forward, with its even more progressive proposals that include calling for the amendment of laws against criticizing the king.
"They hate Move Forward Party more. They're seeing it as more of a threat due to their reformist agendas," Titipol said.